Dubai / London: Radha Stirling, founder and CEO of Detained in Dubai and Due Process International, has warned that regional instability and missile activity across the Gulf could have wider economic consequences for Dubai if disruptions to travel and tourism persist.
While Dubai has long cultivated an image as a stable global hub, Stirling said the emirate’s economy is closely tied to confidence in tourism, aviation and international investment. Any sustained disruption to flights or perception of insecurity could create ripple effects across the wider economy.
“Dubai’s economy relies heavily on confidence,” Stirling said. “Tourism, real estate and hospitality depend on people believing the city is a safe and stable place to visit, invest and work. If that perception is shaken, even temporarily, the knock on effects can spread quickly through the economy.
“Real estate is also closely tied to confidence,” Stirling added. “If tourism slows and expatriates lose jobs, it can quickly affect the property market. During the 2008 crisis we saw people default on mortgages and rental payments almost overnight. Those financial problems then escalated into legal cases, travel bans and even imprisonment. When economic shocks occur in systems where debt disputes can lead to criminal consequences, the fallout for expatriates can be severe.”
Stirling noted that expatriates working in tourism, hospitality, events and retail could be particularly vulnerable if visitor numbers fall or flights remain disrupted.
“Influencers and expatriates who publicly promote Dubai often play an informal role in maintaining that confidence,” she said. “There is significant pressure to project positivity about life in the UAE, especially during times of uncertainty, because people understand how quickly sentiment can affect tourism and investment.”
Stirling said economic downturns in the UAE can have consequences beyond ordinary financial hardship due to the legal framework surrounding debt enforcement.
“During the 2008 financial crisis, I saw how quickly things can unravel when confidence drops,” Stirling said. “People lost their jobs, businesses collapsed, and many expatriates suddenly found themselves facing financial disputes or debt enforcement.”
Although the UAE introduced reforms to its cheque laws in recent years, Stirling said the risk of legal consequences arising from financial distress remains significant.
“The cheque bounce law reforms were widely publicised, but in practice people are still detained or restricted over financial disputes,” she said. “Civil cases can trigger travel bans, and once someone loses their job their residency visa may also be cancelled. That can leave individuals trapped in a situation where they cannot legally work to repay the debts that caused the case in the first place.”
Stirling said her organisations continue to assist foreign nationals facing travel bans, detention or criminal allegations arising from financial disputes in the UAE.
“We are still dealing with Interpol Red Notices and civil disputes arising from the world economic crisis.
“Economic shocks can quickly turn into legal crises for expatriates in systems where debt enforcement can involve criminal proceedings or travel restrictions,” she said. “Even where an issue should not technically be criminal under the new laws, all it takes is an allegation of fraud for a civil matter to be criminalised. It is important that policymakers consider these risks when responding to regional instability.”
Stirling emphasised that while Dubai has demonstrated long term resilience in past crises, prolonged disruption to travel or investor confidence could place pressure on sectors heavily dependent on international mobility. It can put residents in financial hardship which can spiral out of control.
Stirling said her organisations are already hearing from concerned families whose relatives are unable to leave the country due to ongoing legal restrictions.
“We have people contacting us who remain stuck in the UAE over landlord disputes and other financial issues,” she said. “Some are living in extremely precarious situations with children, frightened and unsure where to turn as missile interceptions and attacks unfold around them.”
She added that the problem is not limited to travel bans.
“Detained in Dubai continues to work with people who remain trapped in the UAE over economic disputes,” Stirling said. “We are assisting individuals who are stuck over landlord debts and other financial complaints, some with distressed children, living in extremely precarious circumstances while missile interceptions and attacks are unfolding around them. It is incredibly distressing for families who cannot simply leave or move somewhere safer.”
Stirling said the situation highlights the vulnerability of expatriates during periods of economic shock.
“Dubai has long positioned itself as a safe haven in a volatile region,” Stirling said. “If instability becomes prolonged, the city’s greatest asset, the perception of security and stability, could come under serious pressure.
“When a city’s economy is built on confidence and mobility, disruptions can cascade very quickly. The legal consequences of financial distress can leave people stuck for years, long after the initial crisis has passed”.
